江西省输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险评估

Risk assessment of secondary transmission induced by imported malaria in Jiangxi Province

目的评估江西省由输入性疟疾病例引起本地继发传播的潜在风险及相关影响因素,为推动全省实现消除疟疾目标,调整监测重点地区和风险人群提供科学依据。方法采用德尔菲法(Delphi method)建立江西省输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险评价指标体系,并确定指标权重。收集江西省2012-2015年100个县(市、区)疟疾疫情、传疟媒介和防控能力等数据资料,分别计算各县(市、区)疟疾传播潜能指数(TPI)、消除疟疾防控能力指数(ICI)和疟疾传播风险指数(MRI),并绘制江西省输入性疟疾引起继发传播的潜在风险地图。结果全省疟疾传播风险指数前10位的县(市、区)分别为临川区(2.131)、信州区(1.609)、九江县(1.404)、章贡区(1.365)、丰城市(1.225)、青山湖区(1.184)、于都县(1.171)、定南县(1.018)、浔阳区(1.015)和珠山区(1.006)。风险较高的地区主要分布在地级市所在辖区以及流动人口较多的县(市、区)。结论江西省存在因输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险,且流动人口越多、防控能力越薄弱的地区,其风险也随之增加。

Objective To assess the risk of secondary transmission induced by imported malaria in Jiangxi Province,so as to provide the evidence for adjustment of malaria surveillance strategies in the key groups and areas. Methods The Delphi method was used to establish the secondary transmission risk indicator system and the weight of each index was obtained. The da-ta of malaria prevalence,vector distribution and intervention capacity were collected in 100 counties of Jiangxi Province from 2012 to 2015. The transmission potential index（TPI）,intervention capacity index（ICI）,and malaria risk index（MRI）were calculated for each county. The risk map was drawn with GIS software. Results The top ten counties with highly potential risk indicators were Linchuan District（2.131）,Xinzhou District（1.609）,Jiujiang County（1.404）,Zhanggong District（1.365）, Fengcheng City（1.225）,Qingshanhu District（1.184）,Yudu County（1.171）,Dingnan County（1.018）,Xunyang District （1.015）and Zhushan District（1.006）. The high risk areas were mainly distributed in the regions of the capitals of their prefec-tures and in counties with more floating population. Conclusions There are the risk of the secondary transmission induced by imported malaria in Jiangxi Province. The high risk of the secondary transmission is shown in the areas with more floating popula-tion and weaker intervention capacity.