年径流量序列还现方法研究

Research on Forward Restore Method of Annual Runoff

受人类活动的影响,不同时期年径流量的影响因素不同。特别是由于大型工程的影响,实测年径流量序列已不能真实反映河川径流的天然特性。基于年径流量序列的变化成因分析,通过对暂态成分的排除,得到代表性、一致性较好的新序列,用于后期水资源评价及计算。以黄河高村站实测径流序列为例,分别对暂态成分进行线性拟合及分阶段线性拟合并排除,结果显示,分阶段线性拟合方式较第一种更加合理。计算结果表明还现后的年径流量序列均值与波动范围均与实际情况相符。

Affected by human activities, the influence factors of annual runoff is different during different periods. Especially because of the influence of large engineering, the composition of annual runoff series can not reflect the natural characteristics of runoff. Based on the analysis on change reason of runoff series, a consistency and representative new sequence can be got by eliminating transient components for later evaluation and calculation of water resources. Taking the runoff series of Gaocun Hydrometric Station as example, different ways are used to fit and eliminate the transient components, and the results show that the linear fitting method in stages is more reasonable than linear fitting. The calculation results also show that the average and change range of current annual runoff is consistent with actual situation.