新常态下地方经济增长质量监测预警的理论与方法

The Theory and Method of Monitoring and Early Warning of the Quality of Local Economic Growth under the Background of New Normal

构建新常态下地方经济增长质量监测预警系统,在评价当前经济增长质量的运行状态、准确预测未来经济发展变化趋势的基础上,更侧重于对中国地方经济增长质量进行监测和预警,以及时把控未来经济的变动方向,对地方经济增长质量的提高起到良性指示作用。本文首先给予宏观经济预警系统新的视角,基于经济增长的质量和效益多维度进行监测预警,区别于传统的经济增长速度和数量。其次,明确了经济增长质量监测预警的价值判断和内在机理,对经济增长质量监测预警系统的基本框架做出相应的界定。最后,从经济增长质量的动态监测、趋势预测、识别预警以及政策选择四大模块构建新常态下地方经济增长质量的监测预警系统,提供各模块的方法选择,并以陕西省为例进行演示分析和指数模拟。

Under the ＂New Normal＂ background, the monitoring and early warning system of the quality of local economic growth not only evaluates the operating state of the quality of the current economic growth , accurately predicts the future economic development trend, but also focuses on monitoring and predicting the quality of China＇s local economic growth, in order to grasp and control the direction of economic change in the future, and have a positive indicator for the quality of local economic growth improved. The innovation of this paper has three aspects. Firstly, it gives a new perspective to the macroeconomic early warning system. It is different from the speed and quantity of the traditional economic growth . It is based on the quality and benefit multi-dimension of economic growth. Secondly, it clarifies the value judgment and inherent mechanism of the monitoring and early warning system of the quality of local economic growth, and defines the basic framework for the monitoring and early warning system of the quality of local economic growth. Finally, this paper constructs the monitoring and early warning system of the quality of local economic growth from four modules： dynamic monitoring, trend forecasting, recognizing and early warning, policy choice, and provides the method selection of each module. And taking Shaanxi Province as an example to conduct demonstration analysis and index simulation.