1978—2015年河南省粮食生产变化态势及影响因素分析

Variety Situation of Grain Production in Henan Province from 1978 to 2015 and Analysis of the Influence Factor

粮食生产是粮食安全问题研究的热点。深入分析我国粮食生产态势变化及影响因素对保障粮食安全具有十分重要的参考价值。运用主成分分析法对河南1978—2015年粮食产量的影响因素进行归类分析。研究结果表明,影响河南省粮食生产的因素包括经济-社会-技术综合影响因子、社会-自然综合影响因子和自然影响因子3个方面。为了保障国家粮食安全、提高河南省粮食综合生产能力,应积极促进资源要素向农村配置,完善农业科技创新机制,加大农田水利基础设施建设,加强农业政策扶持,严格保护和节约耕地,改善粮食生产的生态环境,从而建立粮食稳产增产的长效机制。

Grain production is the hotspot in the research on the problem of grain safety. Comprehensive analysisof the variety situation of grain production in China and its influence factor should be of very important referencevalue for ensuring grain safety. This thesis applies PC A （principal component analysis） to classify and analyze theinfluence factor of grain output from 1978 to 2015. The research result shows that the factors influencing Henangrain production include three aspects ： the economy - society - technology combined influence factor, the society -nature combined influence factor, and the nature influence factor. In order to guarantee the grain safety of thecountry and improve the overall grain production capability in Henan province, it is necessary to actively promotethe allocation of resource elements to villages, complete the mechanism for agricultural technology innovation, enlargethe infrastructure construction for irrigation and water conservancy, strengthen the support of agricultural policies, strictly protect and save the arable land, and improve the ecological environment of grain production so as toestablish the long - effect mechanism for stable yield and increase production of the grain.