四种飞机积冰预报方法的比较与分析

Comparison and Analysis of Four Methods of Aircraft Icing Forecast

飞机积冰是对航空飞行安全危害最严重的气象要素之一。本文利用2013年无锡等地的飞机积冰报告资料,对目前常用的四种飞机积冰诊断预报方法进行检验,比较这四种方法对飞机积冰个例预报的准确性。结果表明,仅考虑温湿条件的霜点法对云中过冷水滴含量的影响估计不足,预报效果差,漏报率偏高。修正霜点法对飞机积冰的预报效果明显改善,预报准确率达70.0%以上。假霜点判别法和积冰指数法对飞机积冰有无预报效果均较好,准确率达88%,漏报率也较低。但积冰指数法对积冰强度预报明显偏强,空报率也略偏高。

The aircraft icing is one of the most serious meteorological factors to aviation safety. By using the aircraft icing reports of Wuxi etc. in 2013, this papaer takes an inspection of the four commonly used methods of aircraft icing diagnosing and forecasting, and the accuracy of the four methods are compared for the case of aircraft icing prediction. The results show that the frost point method, which only considers the temperature and humidity conditions, is not enough to estimate the influence of the supercooled water droplets in the cloud, and the prediction effect is poor, the missing report rate is high. Modified frost point method for aircraft icing forecast effect is improved obviously, and the forecast accuracy rate can achieve over 70.0%. False frost point discrimination and icing index method for aircraft icing prediction all have a good effect, whose accurate rate is 88%, and the missing rate is lower. But the icing index method for forecasting icing intensity is stronger, and vacancy rate is slightly higher.