基于天文预测法的径流年型预测

Runoff Forecast Research Based on Astronomical Prediction Method

采用天文学方法,提出太阳运动与流域来水预测研究预测法和月球赤纬角分布图预测法,并尝试应用两种方法对汉江丹江口水库以上流域径流年型进行预测。选取1956—2000年小寒农历时间、1956—2000年月球赤纬角角度,分别与丹江口以上流域年均流量建立关系,根据散点图的变化趋势及丰水线、多年平均线、枯水线划分枯水区、平水区、丰水区,使图表具有明确的来水定性功能。结果表明:2016年汉江丹江口以上流域平水及以下年份出现的概率分别为77.8%、91.7%,枯水年份出现的概率分别为55.6%、50.0%,因此定性汉江丹江口以上流域2016年为枯水年。

This paper presented the methods of forecasting runoff about basin by the study of solar motion and declination of the moon distri-bution map and the two methods were applied to forecast the runoff of the basin above Danjiangkou Reservoir. Slight cold lunar calendar time and the moon declination angle value from 1956 to 2000 were picked to establish relationship with the annual runoff above Danjiangkou Reser-voir respectively. According to the scatter plot trends and high water line , average water line and low water line , it divided the area into three functional areas of high water area, average water area and low water area. So the chart was qualitative to predict the runoff property. The results show that the probability of normal water or lower of the basin above Danjiangkou Reservoir in 2016 is 77.8% and 91.7% respectively; the low water is 55.6% and 50.0% respectively, so the forecast result is a low water year for that region in 2016.