基于层次分析法与物元可拓的分布式光伏发电项目风险评价研究

Study on Risk Assessment of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Based on AHP and Matter-element Extension

采用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)和物元可拓模型意在找出影响分布式光伏发电项目的风险的因素,并对这些因素进行分析研究,从而得出该分布式光伏并网项目的风险程度。结果表明该方法是一种有效的风险评价方法,对影响分布式光伏发电项目的影响因素能够进行定性与定量结合的判断,对分布式光伏发电项目的投资具有一定的指导意义。

Distributed photovoltaic power generation is a major form of photovoltaic power generation. Since it is flexible to use, easy to promote and low in cost, it has great potential for development, however, distributed photovoltaic power generation projects tend to encounter various influences such as external policies, natural environment, investor management and photovoltaic module. Therefore, analytic hierarchy process and matter-element extension model are used to find out the factors that affect the risk of distributed photovoltaic power generation project, and these factors are analyzed and studied so that the risk degree of distributed PV grid-connected project is obtained. Results show that this method is an effective way for risk assessment, and it can judge the influence factors of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects qualitatively and quantitatively, which has certain guiding significance for the investment of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects.