粒子跟踪法溢油模型在渤海海域的适应性

Adaptability of an oil spill model by particle tracking in the Bohai Sea

针对渤海海域日益严峻的溢油风险问题,为选取适用于渤海的溢油模型,对溢油扩散漂移轨迹进行有效预测,在对国内外溢油模型研究现状分析的基础上,采用粒子跟踪法对溢油漂移轨迹进行模拟预测;为验证预测模型的适用性,采用橙子替代溢油粒子的实验方法进行验证,在实验中观测船进行不间断观测,得出模拟溢油漂浮物漂移轨迹,将观测数据轨迹与溢油漂移模型计算得出的预测轨迹进行比对,具有很高的拟合度。研究结果表明:采用橙子作为漂浮物进行溢油模拟实验是科学可行的,进而证明粒子跟踪法预测油膜漂移轨迹的精度非常高,运用于渤海海域溢油漂移模拟是适当的,对于溢油发生后的应急决策有至关重要的指导意义。

To establish a spill model suitable for the Bohai Sea,we effectively predicted oil spill and drift diffusion paths based on the status of marine oil spill risk in this area. Using analysis of current domestic and overseas oil spill models,an oil spill trajectory was simulated and predicted using the particle tracking method. To verify the ap-plicability of the prediction model,oranges were used instead of oil spill particles. During the experiment,the ob-servation ship worked continuously to obtain the oil spill drift trajectory. T he observed data and the results calculat-ed from the oil spill and drift model showed a good fit . The research result shows that it is scientific and feasible to use oranges as floaters in oil spill simulation experiments. In addition,the results show that the particle tracking method is accurate for predicting oil film trajectories. Using the particle tracking method in the Bohai Sea has a sig-nificant meaning for emergency decisions after oil spills.