媒体干预下的MSM群体艾滋病传播模型研究

An AIDS Transmission Model Among MSM Under Media Coverage

为探究新媒体时代,宣传教育对艾滋病在MSM(男男性行为接触者)群体中的防控效果,在建立一类MSM群体艾滋病传播模型的基础上引入媒体因子,并针对这类模型进行理论分析.通过模型计算,得出在无媒体干预下,MSM群体艾滋病传播的基本再生数R0=4.59;在不同措施中,宣传安全套的使用比其他宣传策略更加有效,且提高与固定性伴安全套使用率对R0影响更大.同时,得出MSM人群中有36.7%的艾滋病感染者未被发现,而每年新增感染者中有51.3%是被这些没有被发现的感染者所传染,利用新媒体加强对MSM群体艾滋病预防的宣传教育可有效控制HIV的进一步蔓延.

In new media age, propaganda and education strategies play an important role in the spread of AIDS among MSM（men who have sex with men）. In this paper,it is established a HIV epidemic model with media factors, in order to study the important of propaganda and education. By analyzing the HIV transmission model, it is calculated that the basic reproduc-tion number is i？0 =4. 59 among MSM without media intervention. Comparing different propaganda strategies, it is found that promoting the use of condom is more effective than other publicity strategies and increasing the use of condom with regular partners has greater impact on the basic reproduction number i？0. At the same time,it is concluded that 36. 7% of MSM infec-ted people are not found and 51. 3 % of new infections are transmitted by these unfound infections. Strength propaganda and ed-ucation strategies can effectively control the spread of HIV among MSM under new media era.