基于突变理论的地铁车站大客流脆弱性评价

Vulnerability Assessment of Mass Passenger Flow in Subway Station Based on Catastrophe Theory

为了有效衡量大客流扰动下地铁车站承受和抵御风险的能力,并进一步提高风险管控能力,对地铁车站大客流脆弱性进行量化评价。通过分析脆弱性的构成要素及其作用机理,从暴露度、敏感度和适应度3个维度出发,构建脆弱性评价逻辑架构,并基于突变理论的多准则评价方法建立脆弱性评价指标体系及评价模型。针对脆弱性3要素的逐次突变过程,采用燕尾突变模型分析突变临界状态。最后,以北京市地铁1号线的9个站点为例进行大客流脆弱性评价,并实现脆弱度排序。

In order to effectively measure the capacity of subway station under the disturbance of large passenger flow disturb-ance, and to further improve the ability of risk management and control, the quantitative assessment of subway stations^vulnera-bility under large passenger flow is carried out. Through analysis the elements of vulnerability and their mechanism, the logic structure of vulnerability assessment is established from exposure, sensitivity and adaptation degree. The vulnerability assessment index system and evaluation model are established based on multi - criteria assessment method of the catastrophe theory. Accord-ing to the successive mutation processes of the three elements of the vulnerability, the mutation critical state is analyzed used swallowtail catastrophe model. Finally, taking the 9 stations of Beijing Metro Line 1 as an example, the vulnerability assessment of mass passenger flow is carried out and the vulnerable degree ranking is realized.