基于改进模型的区域生态足迹动态分析——以江苏省南通市为例

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS ON THE REGIONAL ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT WITH A MODIFIED MODEL——A CASE STUDY OF NANTONG CITY,JIANGSU PROVINCE

20世纪90年代以来,生态足迹模型作为定量化可持续评价的重要理论方法得到了广泛的应用。基于传统生态足迹模型,结合遥感产品净初级生产力数据,构建了基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型,调整了均衡因子和产量因子,并增加了污染物账户。在此基础上,应用传统模型和改进后的模型分别计算了南通市2000~2013年的生态足迹。结果表明:(1)传统生态足迹模型和改进模型下的南通市2000~2013年人均生态足迹都是稳步增长的,改进后的模型变化较小;(2)南通市2000~2013年生态承载力虽有所波动,但整体上呈下降趋势;(3)南通市连续14年出现生态赤字,从2000年的0.308 6 hm^2/人上升到0.587 7 hm^2/人,生态系统处于不安全状态,生态系统的稳定性降低。可见,改进的生态足迹模型能更准确地反映研究区自然资源利用状况。最后,针对南通市生态不安全状况,从土地结构、能源消费等方面提出减少生态足迹的建议。

Since the 1990s, quantitative evaluation of sustainable development, as a basic tool to assess and monitor the state and degree of sustainable development, is currently a hot topic in the research area. Ecological footprint model has been widely used for the quantitative evaluation of sustainable theory method. Based on traditional ecological footprint model, this paper approached a modified model based on net primary productivity of MODIS data by modifying the equilibrium factor and production factor and taking the pollutant accounts into account. We analyzed the ecological footprint, the ecological capacity and the ecological deficit of Nantong from 2000 to 2013 by the traditional ecological footprint model and the modified model respectively. The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint in Nantong from 2000 to 2013 was steadily growing while the variation of improved model was smaller than that in traditional model. In addition, the ecological carrying capacity of Nantong in this period represented a decline trend if the local fluctuations were neglected. In addition, the results showed that a substantial ecological deficit in Nantong from 2000 to 2013, and the value of ecological deficit was from 0.3086hm^2/per to 0.5877hm^2/per, implying that the ecological system was not safe and the stability of the ecological system was decreasing. From these results, we can find that the modified EF model can be more suitable to reflect the natural resource utilization of the study area. In the end, considering the unstable ecological security situation in Nantong, this paper proposed reasonable suggestions to reduce eco-footprint, including land structure and energy consumption.