1961～2010年中国大尺度区域暴雨时空分布特征研究

RESEARCH ON SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN OF LARGE-SCALE REGIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN CHINA FROM 1961 TO 2010

长时间大范围的区域暴雨作为一种极端天气气候事件,是人民生产生活的一大威胁,已成为社会和学界的关注焦点之一,亟需研究中国长时间序列区域暴雨的时空演变特征。通过定义的区域暴雨事件,选取持续天数、影响站点数、最大日降雨量和最大累积降雨量4项指标,统计分析了1961~2010年中国区域暴雨的时空变化格局。结果表明:在空间格局上,1961~2010年中国区域暴雨主要分布在黑龙江漠河至云南腾冲一线以东的东部沿海季风区,而西北内陆则无区域暴雨发生;在省际分布上,多集中发生在以广东为首的东部沿海省市;在时间序列上,中国区域暴雨存在准10a(6.5a和13a)的周期振荡,以1997年前后年份发生次数较多,年内多集中在5~9月,且4项指标均在6月份达到最高。

China＇s flooding disasters by heavy rainfall occurred frequently in recent years. Regional heavy rainfall lasting long time and with a wide range is a kind of extreme weather events that is a serious threat to the society. Regional heavy rainfall has become the focus of attention of the society and academic circles. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spatiotemporal pattern of regional heavy rainfall in China in recent years. Selection based on the definition of regional heavy rainfall, last days, impact station number, maximum daily precipitation and cumulative precipitation as the four indicators, statistical analysis of the China regional heavy rainfall spatiotemporal pattern between 1961 and 2010 was carried out in this study. The results showed that： China＇s regional heavy rainfalls are mainly distributed in the east region as a result of monsoon of the line between Mohe in Heilongjiang province and Tengchong in Yunnan province. Regional heavy rainfalls are more concentrated in eastern coastal provinces and cities, led by Guangdong province. In temporal dimension, China＇s regional heavy rainfall is quasi periodic oscillations in ten years （6.5 and 13 years） and occurred more with around 1997. Regional heavy rainfall are more concentrated in May to September during a year from long-term period, and four indicators reached the highest in June.