中国人均碳排放权分配方案预测研究

Prediction Reserach on the Allocation Scheme of the Chinese Per Capita Carbon Emission Right

气候变化是21世纪最严重的全球性问题之一。即使《巴黎协议》获得通过,仍有许多国家采取各种方式拒绝承担减排责任。已有减排分配方案也多是临时性的,尚有许多争议。为了能更好地完善后续减排分配方案,很多学者都对国家减排责任的分配进行了探讨,但是由于以下缺点:否认发达国家需要承担的历史减排责任或发展中国家对未来的减排责任,因此不能提供更为公平的分配方案。在此背景下,文章旨在预测中国到2050年碳排放量,以人均碳排放量为基础,分析中国的碳排放权。

Climate change is one of the most serious global problems of the 21st century. Even if the Paris Agreement has been passed, still a lot of countries take various measures to evade their responsibility. Most of the existing carbon emission reduction schemes are temporary and controversial. In order to perfect the subsequent emission reduction allocation plan, many scholars probes into the allocation of emissions reductions responsibility for different countries, but the allocation plan has the defect of denying the developed countries＇ undertaking the historical responsibility for emissions reduction or the developing countries＇ responsibility for emission reductions in the future, which makes a more equitable distribution program unavailable. In this context, this paper aims to predict the Chinese carbon emissions by 2050, and per capita carbon emissions based on the analysis of China＇s carbon emissions right.