基于BCA模型的中国经济波动因素的再测算

Reestimate of the Chinese Economic Fluctuations Based on BCA Model

文章以动态随机一般均衡模型作为基本分析框架,构建一个带有时变摩擦的实际经济周期(RBC)模型。在考虑经济结构变化的前提下,使用经济周期测度(BCA)模型对1978—2015年我国宏观经济波动特征进行研究和引起波动的因素进行分解,实证结果表明:1993年是我国经济系统结构变化的断点,1978—1992年我国经济波动主要受技术冲击影响,其他的冲击因素具有缓解经济波动的作用;1993—2015年,我国经济波动主要受投资冲击的影响,而技术冲击、劳动冲击和外部冲击也起到部分影响;改革开放以来,我国经济波动源由从单一波动源向多种冲击共同作用的趋势发展。

This paper constructs an economic cycle （RBC） model with time varying friction based on the basic analytical framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Considering the change of economic structure from 1978 to 2015, we use the Business Cycle Accounting （BCA） model to study the fluctuation characteristics of Chinese macro-economy and to decompose the factors of volatility. The empirical results show that China＇s economic system had a structural change breakpoints in 1993, and China＇s economic fluctuations were mainly affected by technology shocks. The impact of other factors played a role to alleviate the economic fluctuations from 1978 to 1992. However, China＇s conomic fluctuations were mainly affected by the impact of the investment. Meanwhile, the impact of technology, labor shocks and the impact of external shocks also played certain roles from 1993 to 2015. Since China＇ s implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, the fluctuations source has trended to develop from single fluctuation source to multiple shock interaction.