征收碳税真能减少碳排放?——基于VAR模型的石油价格对碳排放影响的实证检验

Carbon Taxes Really Works in Reduction of Carbon Emissions:An Empirical Test of the Impact of Oil Price on Carbon Emissions Based on VAR Model

当前,无论是从国内供给侧改革,保持国民经济持续稳定增长的角度,还是从遵从国际社会道义,承担起大国应有的担当出发,我国都面临的巨大的减排压力,在国内企业减排自觉性不强,碳排放权交易收效不明的情况下,征收碳税再次被推上议事日程。选取1970—2009年国际石油价格、全球碳排放总量及我国碳排放总量的相关数据,利用VAR模型分析国际石油价格对全球及我国碳排放总量的影响,认为将单次价格变化的政策,如征收碳税,作为控制碳排放的手段措施,在短期内收效明显,并且市场化程度越高,短期效果越明显,但政策作用期也更短;长期内,不管是市场化程度高的地区还是市场化较低的区域,单次石油价格变化对碳排放量都影响甚小。

At present,China is facing enormous pressure to reduee emissions, either from the domestic supply side of the reform, which is to maintain sustained and stable growth of the national economy point of view, or from the international community to comply with the moral responsibility, which is the starting power should bear. Emission reduction consciousness of related enterprises is not strong,and carbon emissions trading results is not clear. Under such circumstances,the imposition of carbon tax once again is put onto the agenda. In this paper,the data of international oil price,global carbon emission and China＇s total carbon emissions from 1970 to 2009 are selected. The VAR model is used to analyze the impact of international oil price on the global carbon emissions and China＇s total carbon emissions. Some of the policies are effective,such as the imposition of carbon tax,as a means of measures to control carbon emissions in the short term effect. The higher the degree of marketization, short term effect is more obvious, but the policy period is shorter; on the long-term, a single oil price changes have little effect on carbon emissions with no relation to the degree of marketization of the region.