基于ART及多风险规避的交通网络均衡模型

Modelling traffic network equilibrium based on ART and multi-risk-aversion travel characteristics

随着对交通系统不确定性认识的深入,以绝对理性为基础的"期望效用理论"在风险环境下的路径选择分析中显示出局限性,而"预期后悔理论"则为之提供了新的分析思路.将预期后悔理论应用到风险环境下的路径选择分析中,将出行者一致风险规避的假设扩展到多风险规避,建立了基于后悔理论及多风险规避出行特征的交通网络随机用户均衡变分不等式模型,并给出了求解算法.通过算例分析发现,后悔心理对出行者的路径选择并不总是显著的.在非风险环境及极端风险环境中,后悔心理对出行者的路径选择影响是微弱的,但是当环境处于极端风险与非风险之间时,后悔心理对出行者路径选择有着较为显著的影响.

With more understanding of the uncertainty in the traffic system, researchers have realized that the ＇expected utility theory＇ based on the absolute rationality shows limitation in analyzing route choice behavior under the risk environment and that the anticipated regret theory proposes an alternative framework to the tradi- tional risk-taking in route choice behavior. In this paper, the anticipated regret theory （ART） is applied to analyzing the route choice behavior under the risk environment, and the consistent risk aversion assumption of the travelers is extended to multiple risk aversion. Moreover, a stochastic user equilibrium model is established as well as its variational inequality expression and the solution algorithm is given. Both the model and the algo- rithm are demonstrated in a numerical example. The results show that the regret psychology is not always sig- nificant in the route choice process. In the non-risk and extreme risk environment, the travelers＇ regret psy- chology on the route choice is weak. But when the environment is between non-risk and extreme risk, the travelers＇ regret psychology has a significant impact on the route choice process.