京津冀交通控制温室气体和污染物的协同效应分析

Co-benefit Analysis of Greenhouse Gases and Local Air Pollutants Mitigation for Transportation Sector in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

本文以京津冀道路和轨道交通为对象,以协同率作为量化指标,基于情景分析对京津冀"十三五"期间6项关键交通政策措施控制温室气体和空气污染物的协同效应大小进行计算。结果显示,发展城际高速或市郊铁路、加强公路路网建设的协同效应最大,分别为11.5和8.8/kg CO_2当量。实施严格的机动车排放控制对排放量的削减最大,由此可以减排3215万t CO_2当量和17.6万t空气污染物。该3项政策措施为京津冀交通能源环境与应对气候变化综合管理的推荐措施。发展城市轨道交通不削减排放,协同效应最小,但是在提高城市交通运输效率,以及缓解城市拥堵方面的作用优于减碳控污。

This paper focuses on analyzing the co-benefit of GHGs and air pollutants mitigation for transportation sector in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In order to quantify co-benefit, a parameter called synergistic rate and the technique of scenario analysis are used to assess different measures and policies. We have selected six key measures of road and rail transportation sector in this region. Quantification results reveal that two measures, development of inter- city high-speed/suburban railways and enhancement of highway network, have the highest synergistic rates, which are 11.5 and 8.8 per kilometers CO2-eq. The measures of implementation strict emission standards on motor vehicles could reduce 32.1 million tons of CO2-eq and 176 thousand tons of air pollutants, which rank the first among all measures. These three measures are supposed to be the best practice in dealing with energy, environment and climate change issues of transportation sector in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The paper also proves that development of urban railways is more helpful to ease traffic congestion than mitigate GHGs and air pollutions.