考虑日前市场价格和风电不确定性的月度合约市场购电模型

Monthly Electricity Energy Purchasing Model Considering Day-ahead Market Price And Wind Power Uncertainty

目前我国月度合约市场购电量仅依据负荷预测值来确定,忽略了月度合约市场和日前市场之间的联系。随着大规模风电的并网,风电不确定性增加了月度合约市场购电决策的难度。综合考虑了日前市场风电不确定性对月度合约市场的影响,建立了含风电的月度合约市场购电模型,并通过算例具体分析了风电预测偏差、日前市场预测价格、月度合约市场报价的影响。结果表明该模型可减少购电总费用,具有更好的经济性。

At present, the quantity of energy purchasing in the monthly contract market is only depend on the prediction value of the load which ignores the relationship between the monthly market and day-ahead market. And with the large scale wind power integrating into grid, the uncertainty of them will bring new challenges for the power dispatching. Therefore the monthly purchasing model is established considering the influence on the monthly market of the price of day-ahead market and the uncertainty of the wind power together. The influence indexes of wind power forecast deviation, day-ahead market forecast price and monthly contract biding price are analyzed through calculation examples. The results show that the model can reduce the total power purchasing expenses and have better economy.