中国城镇化发展的战略性规划与可行性方案

The Strategic Planning and Feasibility Plan of China's Urbanization Development

一直以来,中国城镇化发展在完全意义上的战略性规划领域存在缺失。因此,如何构建城镇化稳健快速推进的宏观调控组织结构体系及整体推进方案,在新时期具有重要意义。基于城镇化稳健快速推进的货币供给与投放模型、"投入—产出"质性评估等的分析表明,城镇化推进规划聚焦于用扩大的充裕的货币资金,优先解决农村富余人口彻底转移入城的基本生活保障问题,抓住了以人为核心的户籍城镇化命题的关键环节。推进方案总体上实现"总产出"大于"总投入",方案总体特征体现为安全稳健快速。从区域维度来看,中国疆域广阔,各地经济社会发展不平衡,各地政府公信力和执法能力相差较大,而那些经济社会发展水平高、政府财力充裕、公信力较好、执法能力较强的地方,则更适宜采用这种城镇化推进方案,反之亦然。

There has been a lack of strategic planning in the full sense during China＇s urbanization. Therefore, how to build a macro-control system and overall organizational structure which is helpful for the steady and rapid urbanization in the new period is of great significance. Based on the analysis of the money supply and delivery model and the input-output qualitative evaluation, we can find out that the urbanization planning focuses on the expansion of abundant monetary funds, giving priority to the city＇s basic living security of the rural surplus population thoroughly transferred into city, which has seized the key link of people oriented household registration urbanization. The urbanization plan reaches that the total output is larger than ＂total investment＂, and the overall characteristics of the scheme are safe and rapid. From a regional perspective, China＇s vast territory, regional economic and social development is uneven, and local governments credibility and law enforcement capacity difference is large. For those governments with high economic and social development level, ample government financial, better government credibility, stronger law enforcement ability, it is more suitable to use such urbanization program, and vice versa.