中国公共债务:历史演变与当前风险——基于财政收支结构的视角

Public Debt in China: Historical Evolution and Current Risk——Based on the Perspective of Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Structure

公共债务问题是当前世界主要经济体普遍面临的重要问题,中国也不例外。通过梳理中国公共债务的起源与历史演变过程,分析当前中国公共债务的内涵与大致规模,并从财政收支结构的视角研究中国公共债务规模的发展趋势后可以得出结论,即在当前中国经济增长趋缓的态势下,一方面经济建设类支出和民生支出加大将导致财政支出继续增加,另一方面中国税收体系的顺周期性和消费大众为实际税负承担者的特点导致财政收入难以提升,因此中国公共债务规模还将继续扩大,尽管当前债务负担率低于国际警戒水平,但潜在风险不容忽视。

The problem of public debt is an important issue of major economies in the world, and China is no exception. By combing the origin and historical evolution process of China＇s public debt, analyzing the connotation and roughly scale of public debt in China, and researching its development trend from the perspective of financial revenue and expenditure structure, the paper reaches some conclusions. That is in the current Chinese economic growth downward trend, on the one hand, economic construction expenditure and people＇s livelihood cost growth will lead to fiscal expenditure continued to increase, on the other hand, the pro-cyclicality of China＇s tax system and consumer as the actual undertaker tax burden of the＇s characteristics will make it difficuh to improve fisical revenue, so China＇s public debt will continue to expand. Although the current debt burden rate is lower than the international warning level, the potential risks can not be ignored.