油价波动的多样性因素分解及其异质性经济影响

A Multiformity Decomposition of Oil Price Fluctuations and Their Heterogeneous Economic Effects

文章运用波动因素时点分解方法,分析了1994—2015年期间中国经济在国际原油价格波动中的角色及其各波动因素对中国经济的异质性影响。研究发现,中国经济仅在个别年份对国际油价产生了影响,油价上升一般主要由预防需求因素引起,但其下降则包含预防需求与OECD需求两种因素。关于各波动因素的经济影响,中国需求和预防需求因素会促进中国经济的增长,而供给和OECD需求因素未对中国经济产生明显影响。所以,区分油价波动来源是应对油价波动的首要一步。

This paper, applying the time point decomposition methods, analyzed the role of China＇ s economy in international crude oil price fluctuations and their heterogeneous economic effects on China＇ s economy between 1994 and 2015. The results showed that the demands attributable to China＇ s economy only affected international oil price in individual years, and the precautionary demands and OECD had notable effects on the real oil price. Furthermore, the rise in oil prices was caused only by precautionary demands, but the fall by precautionary demands and OECD. It also found that the China＇ s demands and the precautionary demands could increase the growth of China＇ s economy, but the supply and the OECD demands could not affect China＇ s economy. Therefore, the first step in response to oil price fluctuations is to identify the source of the fluctuations.