“一带一路”背景下中国对中亚五国FDI的双边贸易影响研究

China's FDI in Five Central Asian Countries Collaborative Innovation Center for Resource-Based Economy Transition

"一带一路"战略的实施,为中国和沿线各国经济贸易发展带来新的历史机遇。文章选取2004—2014年中国对中亚五国11年间的FDI与进出口贸易数据,分析中国对中亚五国的FDI存量对双边贸易的影响,在此基础上建立面板模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明,中国对中亚五国FDI有显著的贸易促进作用;但是分国别看,中国对哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦FDI的进口促进效应大于出口创造效应,中国对乌兹别克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦FDI的进口促进效应小于出口创造效应。因此,在"一带一路"战略的实施过程中,应扩大中国对中亚五国FDI的规模,并根据各国具体情况来制定FDI的方向,发挥FDI促进双边贸易发展的作用。

The implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative brings to China and most relevant countries new historic opportunities in the field of economy and trade. This paper, using the export and import panel date of China＇ s FDI in five Central Asian countries from 2004-2014, analyzed the FDI effect on these countries. The results showed that China＇ s FDI affected prominently these countries, but the effect differed in different countries. China＇ s FDI in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan had a greater import effect than the export effect; China＇ s FDI in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan had a greater export effect than the import effect. Accordingly, China should enlarge the scale of FDI, devise FDI priorities in line with the situations of each country, and promote FDI in developing bilateral economies.