2015年国际钻石产业困境及面临的挑战

Global Diamond Industry Recession of 2015 and Several Prospective Challenge

钻石产业在珠宝产业中举足轻重.2014下半年开始,特别是2015年,国际钻石产业经历了 2008年 金融危机后的最大挑战.本文通过对钻石产业报告、公司年报和新闻资料的整理分析,综述了国际钻石产业 发展的现状,分析了 2015年钻石业出现困境的因果关系及其后可能面对的挑战.2013年下半年,钻石市场 意外改善,主要钻坯开采商相应增加了钻坯销售,提高钻坯价格,切磨商投机盲目跟进购买钻坯.2014下半 年开始,新兴钻饰市场,尤其是大中华区钻饰市场意外放缓.新兴市场成品钻石需求剧减和切磨商资金周转 困难相互作用推动成品钻石价格下跌,切磨商利润缩减,减少钻坯购买,导致钻坯销售骤减,价格暴跌,致使 2015年末大量过剩钻坯停留在主要开采商处,从而形成了市场的恶性循环.2015年,国际钻石产业受到下游 钻饰消费放缓的连锁反应影响,产业链内部存在的结构性问题加大加深了此次困境.当前,上游钻坯市场正 经历结构性变革,钻石商从整体战略合作向注重自身利益方向偏移,处于中游的钻石切磨商利润空间弹性小, 融资难度大,难以抵抗钻石产业剧烈竞争和短期动荡带来的结构性风险,特别是整个钻石产业缺乏整体市场 的创新开发能力等诸多因素导致钻石产业面临新的挑战.显然,解决下游钻饰需求疲软问题仍是现今整个钻 石产业的当务之急,钻石产业链的结构性变革和整合在所难免.

The diamond industry is a vital part of the jewelry industry. In the second half of 2014 and especially in 2015, the diamond industry suffered the most intense recession since the 2008 financial crisis. Through the analysis of diamond industry reports, company annual reports, and news reports, we review the current status of the global diamond industry, fo-cus on the reasons for and results of this recession, and point out several prospective challen-ges faced by the industry. The available information suggests that because of the sudden im-provement in the diamond industry in the second half of 2013, major rough-diamond produc-ers increased sales and prices of rough diamonds and the mid-sector companies bought them readily and speculatively. However, the demand for diamond jewelry in emerging markets, particularly in Greater China unexpectedly declined since the second half of 2014. The sharp decrease in demand for polished diamonds in emerging markets and tight liquidity for the mid-sector pushed down the prices and profitability of polished stones further. In turn, sales and prices of rough stones decreased dramatically, and the major producers were left with large excess inventory. As a result, a vicious circle was created. In 2015 , the diamond indus-try suffered the ripple effect from the decline in consumer demand for diamond jewelry that started in 2014. In the meantime, the exposed structural problems in the global diamond in-dustry enlarged and deepened this recession. The diamond industry is now facing several new challenges. First, the rough diamond distribution system is undergoing structural change and the producers are moving away from strategic coordination, which will cause some insta-bilities in the industry. Second, mid-market companies with underlying structural problems- including profitability erosions and increased financial risk-are not robust enough to cushion against more fierce competition in the industry and short-term fluctuations in the retail mar-ket, and thus will likely undergo structural reform. Last but not the least, the investment in generic marketing was lacked in the diamond industry for too many years. Obviously, the most crucial and urgent problem facing the industry is the softened demand for diamond jew-elry.