四川省能源强度影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting Energy Intensity in Sichuan Province

为降低四川省能源强度,对影响能源强度的因素采用了向量自回归模型等方法进行了研究。结果表明:长期来看,能源消费结构、产业结构等对能源强度表现为正影响,工业化水平等对能源强度表现为负影响,短期来看,产业结构的变动对能源强度的影响变化较大,剩下依次为能源消费结构、经济发展、工业化水平、贸易依存度。综上可得出建议,为降低能源强度,需优化产业结构,降低煤炭消费比重,重视开发新能源,淘汰落后工业产业。

Reducing energy intensity is an important means to promote cyclic economy development.On the basis of vector autoregressive model,co-integration analysis and so on,analyses have been conducted to explore impact processes and effect results between influence factors and the energy intensity in Sichuan Province.The results are as follows：In the long term,the energy consumption structure and industrial structure,trade dependence degree has positive impact on energy intensity,respectively whereas industrialization level and economic development level have showed a negative influence to energy intensity;In the short term,change in the industrial structure has the greatest influence on energy intensity of those factors,and the rest successively are energy consumption structure,economic development level,industrialization level,and trade dependence degree.Finally,some suggestions are proposed to reduce the intensity,such as optimizing the industrial structure,reduce consumption proportion of the coal,attaching attention to new energy and high-tech industry development,eliminate backward industries,etc.