短时事故扰动下的逐日路网流量演化模型

Day-to-day Traffic Evolution Model under Incident

为研究事故扰动下日变交通路网流量在出发时刻和选择路径上的时空演变规律,以出行经验学习更新路网理解阻抗,基于准点到达概率最大和到达前景最大分别调整计划出发时刻和出行路径.并在出行当日根据出发前各时段的实时信息再次更新路网阻抗,重新调整出发时刻和路径获得实际出行选择.从而建立考虑出行日信息更新的逐日路网流量演化模型.采用算例验证模型,结果表明:在路网无事故情形下,考虑出行日内调整,路网流量变化震荡缓和,但达到稳定所需时间长;事故发生在稳定前,会影响最终平衡态流量分布,而事故发生在稳定后,则不影响;考虑出行日调整会加大路网在事故发生后几日的流量震荡.

In order to study the temporal and spatial evolution law of day-to-day network flow under shorttime disturbance,network perspective travel time is computed according to past travel experience.With the pursuit goal of maximizing the punctual probability and path prospect,a model is established to adjust schemed departure time and route.On departure day,network travel time is updated again according to the real-time information of each period before departure,and actual departure time and route are readjusted to obtain the actual travel choice.So a model of considering real-time information on departure day is established to describe daily evolution of road network traffic.Finally,a numerical example to verify the model and algorithm,the results show that：in case of no accident,considering adjustment on departure day,flow distribution has smaller amplitude but longer time for stability;in case of accident occurring before stability,the stable flow distribution will be affected,but occurring after stability,the result is opposed;accident will increase flow shock when consider re-adjustment.