上海市历史城区震后应急救援路网评价与优化

The Evaluation and Optimization of Post-earthquake Emergency Rescue Road Network in Shanghai Historic Area

随着我国城市化进程加快,自然灾害问题也日渐凸显,作为主要自然灾害之一的地震正在严重影响着我国城市的公共安全.城市交通系统是城市重要的生命线,因此研究震后城市应急救援道路网络连通可靠度具有重要的现实意义.历史城区由于其建筑多为老旧平房,抗震性能差,而且城区道路空间局促,在遭遇地震时路网更易堵塞.本文以上海豫园区域路网为例,基于瓦砾堆积模型对震后路段通行概率进行计算,采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对路网节点连接可靠度进行计算,对震后路网路段单元和节点的可靠性进行评估,并在此基础上判别关键路段和优化应急医疗救援路径.

With the rapid development of urbanization in China,natural disasters cause severe problems and challenge the public safety,especially the earthquake.The transportation system is one of the urban lifelines,and the research for its connectivity reliability of post-earthquake emergency resue road network is necessary.In the urban historic district,due to the poor seismic performance of old buildings,mostly bungalows,and limited road spaces,the connectivity reliability of post-earthquake road network is an significant issue.This study investigates the post-earthquake road network connectivity reliability in Shanghai historic area around Yu Garden.The predictive model of debris obstruction of collapsed buildings is used to calculate the link connectivity probability;the Monte Carlo simulation method is employed to calculate the node and link connectivity reliability in the road network.Finally,we try to identify critical links and optimize emergency medical resue path.