营口市辽河港大风精细化预报方法研究

Study on Refined Forecast Method of Strong Wind at Liao River Port in Yingkou City

为提高业务中对营口辽河港大风的预报能力,本文以T639模式输出资料和西炮台国家级气象观测站风资料为依托,运用双重检验的多元线性逐步回归法,建立西炮台站不同季节、起报时次、预报时次的风速预报方程,并对各方程的模拟能力进行检验。结果表明,所有季节、起报时次、预报时次的预报方程,其模拟效果均明显优于原T639模式;6级及以上大风情况下,预报方程的模拟效果要明显优于原T639模式。

In order to promote the forecast ability of strong wind in Liao River Port of Yingkou City,based on the forecast products of the numerical model T639 and observation data in Xipaotai Station ,wind speed forecast equations of different seasons,start time and forecast time were established ,using stepwise regressive method with double check. Simulation results were then checked up. The results showed that the simulated wind speeds by all the equations were better than T639 model. In the case of strong wind above level 6, simulation results of forecast equations were significantly better than T639 model.