我国居民储蓄主要影响因素分析——基于时间序列数据的实证研究

Analysis of the Main Influence Factors of Resident Savings in China——Empirical Study Based on Time Series Data

选取2002~2014年的时间序列数据,利用单位根检验、协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法对我国居民储蓄的主要影响因素进行了实证分析,发现人口结构、性别结构及收入分配与居民储蓄间均存在长期稳定关系,其中,代表人口结构的老年抚养比对居民储蓄存在显著的因果关系,是造成居民储蓄变动的重要变量;房价、利率水平对居民储蓄的影响不显著。提出了优化人口结构、促进男女平等、合理分配居民收入、完善保障制度等相关政策建议。

In this paper, on the basis of time series data from 2002 to 2014, an empirical analysis on the main influence factors of resident savings in China was made by using unit root test, co-integration test and Granger causality test. It is found that there is a long-term stable relationship between population structure, gender structure, income distribution and household savings, respectively. Among them, the elderly dependency ratio on behalf of population structure has a significant causal effect on household savings, and it is an important variable that causes the change of residents＇ savings. The impact of house price and interest rate on household savings is not significant. Then some relevant policy recommendations are made for optimizing the population structure, promoting equality between men and women, and reasonable allocation of income.