河道治理工程项目经济风险因素评估研究

Evaluation of the Economic Risks in River Regulation Projects

河道治理工程会对当地居民的生产、生活产生一定的经济风险,因此预估工程经济风险的风险等级对经济社会的恢复和稳定有重大意义。选取14个经济风险评估因素,以里下河地区河道治理工程为例,通过发放和统计经济风险等级调查表,将经济风险的发生概率和影响程度划分为5个等级,进而预估了河道治理工程中对经济社会产生重大影响的14个风险因素的等级。结果表明,里下河地区河道治理工程的经济风险等级总的来说是一般程度,而且有些风险因素对经济的影响程度甚微,发生较严重和严重经济风险的可能性较小。最后结合风险识别和风险评估结论,补充、优化和完善里下河洼地治理工程的风险防范和化解措施,进而在后期类似河道治理工程中,针对重点风险提出相关防范措施,对于恢复当地居民生活生产、维护工程区社会稳定和保障工程顺利进行有一定的现实意义。

River regulation projects could give rise to economic risks to living and production of local residents and economy. Assessing the potentials and seriousness of the risks is hence important to economic recovery and social stability. In this paper we assessed the risks of the regulation project in Lixia river by issuing and analyzing economic-risks questionnaires in which the probability of occurrence of risks and their consequent impacts were quantified in five levels. We chose 14 factors in the analysis. The results show that on average, the social and economic risks of the Lixia river regulation project were moderate. The risks of some factors affecting local econmy were low, and the possibility of occurrence of serious economic risks was small. Based on the risks identified and their assessment, the risk prevention of Lixia river risk prevention measures were complemented and perfected.Thus, in the later similar river regulation project, related preventive measures could be put forward aiming at the key risks, which would have great practical significance to recover local residents＇ living and to ensure that the project can be constructed undisruptively.