工业企业污染防治投资的经济增长效应研究——基于状态空间模型的时变弹性估计

Economic Growth Effect Research on Investment of Pollution Prevention for Industrial Enterprises:Time-varied Elasticity Estimation Based on State-space Model

工业污染防治投资不同于一般生产性投资,其对宏观经济增长到底是正向效应还是负向效应,有待研究和探讨。基于时变弹性的C-D生产函数,将资本、劳动、工业企业污染防治投资产出弹性作为状态向量,构建了状态空间模型,并运用Kalman滤波算法对2000-2014年我国工业企业污染防治投资的产出弹性系数进行连续地估计。结果显示:工业企业污染防治投资的产出弹性系数在-0.117~0.300范围间波动,均值为0.099,其对经济增长的正向效应是主要的,但在2003年和2012-2014年这四年出现了负向效应;从趋势上看,污染防治投资产出弹性系数波动幅度较大,2000-2007年先降后升,2007年以后持续下降。弹性系数呈下降趋势波动的原因在于:短期内污染防治投资对一般生产性投资的"挤占效应"、工业企业缺乏污染防治投资的内在动力、政府对工业企业污染治理领域的政策规制等。

Different from the general productive investment,there are still research and discussion about the effects on macro-economic growth brought by investment of pollution prevention for industrial enterprises,positive or negative. Based on the C-D production function of time-varied elasticity,this thesis sets up the state-space model and applies the Kalman filtering algorithm with taking the output elasticity of capital,labor and pollution prevention investment for industrial enterprises as state-space model,developing a continuous estimation to the output elasticity coefficient of China ＇s pollution prevention investment for industrial enterprises from 2000 to2014. According to the result,we can find that the output elasticity coefficient of pollution prevention investment for industrial enterprises fluctuates between-0. 117 and 0. 300 and the mean value is 0. 099,showing a positive effect to economic growth,while in 2003 and 2012-2014,the situation is different in which the negative effect comes up. And from this trend,we can find that the the output elasticity coefficient of pollution prevention investment for industrial enterprises is under a large fluctuation,rising first an falling later from 2000-2007 and continuously decreasing after 2007. The reasons why the elasticity coefficient is under a downward trend fluctuation are that the crowding out effect of the general productive investment in short term pollution prevention investment,the lack of internal impetus on pollution prevention investment for industrial enterprises,and the government policy in the filed of pollution control for industrial enterprise.