定居工程实施背景下牧民的生计风险及应对策略——以新疆阿勒泰地区为例

Herders livelihood risk and coping strategies in the context of the Herders Settlement Project:case of the Altay Region

阿勒泰地区是全国和新疆自治区的重要牧区之一,在退耕还林(草)工程、牧民定居工程等农牧业重大政策实施过程中,当地农牧户也面临各种生产生活压力,暴露于各种风险之中.本文通过对阿勒泰地区牧民进行随机入户调查,探讨了牧民面临的主要生计风险及其应对策略,并采用二元Probit回归模型分析了影响牧民风险应对策略选择的主要因素.结果表明:1)牧民面临的主要风险问题为市场风险、就业风险、子女教育/婚姻风险、医疗风险等,牧民最担心的生计风险为子女教育/婚姻问题,其次是医疗风险.2)牧民最常采用的风险应对策略是政府救济,也会采取寻求他人帮助、社会保险、出售资产、外出务工等应对策略,最少采用的应对策略是孩子辍学.3)金融资本、人力资本是影响牧民风险应对策略选择的主要因素,物质资本、自然资本次之,社会资本影响最弱.从提高牧民生计风险抵御能力角度出发,提出了促进牧民稳定定居的政策建议.

Households as basic ecoeconomic system are the implementer of agricultural and implementation of major policies and are often exposed to various natural and human risks.The Altay Region is one of the key pastoral areas in Xinjiang Autonomous Region and the whole country.Take the Grain to Green and the Herdsmen Settlement Project as examples,the herdsmen face all kinds of production and living pressure,and are exposed to various livelihood risks during the implementation process of agricultural major policy.Herder household survey in the Altay Region was done to analyze the main livelihood risks faced by herders and their coping strategies.Factors affecting risk coping strategies were analyzed by binary Probit regression model.The main risks faced by herders were found to be：market risk,unemployment risk,children＇s education/marriage risk,medical risk.Children＇s education/marriage risk was the first livelihood risk worried by Herders followed by medical risks.Herders usually take government assistance as a coping strategy when they face livelihood risks,they also adopt coping strategies such as seeking helps from others,social insurance,sale of assets,going out to work or other coping strategies,dropping out of school is the last one they will adopt.Financial capital and human capital are the main factors affect risk coping strategies adopted by herders,followed by natural capital and physical capital.Social capital is the weakest.Based on improving the herders＇livelihood risks resilience,the present work puts forward some policy recommendations to promote herders＇stable settlement.