西部特大城市低碳发展的现状问题及目标策略研究——以西安市为例

Low carbon development status and target strategy in western megalopolis:a case of Xi'an City

作为应对全球气候变化的关键平台,城市尺度的低碳建设研究具有重要意义。本文以西部特大城市—西安市为例,分别从碳排放量变化趋势、未来发展目标、关键部门能耗系统分析其低碳发展现状,指出存在问题及可能的节能减排潜力,认为西安市高碳发展模式明显,面临资源禀赋差异、能源消费结构的锁定效应、能源利用效率低、城市空间结构不合理、高能耗建筑多、碳汇能力弱等问题。基于此,制定工业节能技术改造、城市空间合理布局、推广绿色建筑、社会治理创新和政策保障等对策措施。

Climate change has increasingly influenced human life and CO2 emissions has become a major factor causing global climate warming. China is one of top CO2 emissions nations and has drawn the world attention.China commit CO2 emissions will arrive peak around 2030,which means that China will gradually turn from the energy intensity and CO2 emissions intensity control into the total energy consumption and CO2 emissions control and finally realize the economic growth and CO2emissions＂decoupling＂. At the same time,Chinese urbanization is interwoven with CO2 emissions. Cities has played agglomeration effect with population and land consolidation,but it also accelerated factors of high concentration by energy consumption,such as population,economic and transportation. Therefore,cities become a leading platform to reduce CO2 emissions in a region or a country. On the other hand,the western region has priority in the national regional development strategy through the west development program and its CO2 emissions also get rapid growth. Current research is mainly focused on eastern and central megalopolis,the research conclusion is not fit for the unique path,measures and strategies of low carbon development in western megalopolis. Xi＇an City,the only international metropolis in northwest China,lies in the core area of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone and is a new starting point in Silk Road Economic Belt.Taking Xi＇an City as example,with the statistical data of GDP,energy consumption and population of Xi＇an from 2005 to 2014,this paper analyzed the CO2 emissions change trend and the low carbon city＇s development prospect till year 2030 in different scenarios using scenario analysis and decoupling theory. The study found that CO2 emissions continued to grow and there was decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in recent years. The carbon productivity kept rising and CO2 emissions per capita was under the domestic advanced level. Compared with inertial scenario,the CO2 emissions will be reduced by nearly 50% before 2030 in decoupling scenario,and the scenario can be achieved actively with green and low carbon transition. An important breakthrough in traffic and architect was found that the growth rate of CO2 emissions from industrial enterprises above designated size had declined,but private cars and public buildings kept a stable rising trend. There were many positive factors and potential to energy conservation and emissions reduction in these key areas.Based on these results,this paper shows＂high carbon＂in the economic development with all kinds of features,such as difference of resources endowment,lock-in effect of energy consumption structure,the energy inefficiency,unreasonable urban spatial structure,high energy public buildings and weak carbon sink. Finally,we put forward new proposals such as industrial technical reconstruction,reasonable urban spatial layout,the promotion of green building and innovation of social governance,etc.