中国FDI与ODI对低碳经济发展的影响以及对“一带一路”战略的启示

The Effects of FDl and ODI on the Development of Low Carbon Economy and the Inspiration for B&R Strategy

FDI与ODI可以通过资本流动产生的规模效应、技术效应和结构效应影响碳排放水平,"一带一路"战略下建设绿色丝绸之路、打造亚洲低碳共同体成为沿线国家共识,因此,研究我国沿线省份FDI与ODI对低碳经济发展的影响,对于"一带一路"政策的实施具有重要的理论和现实意义。研究表明FDI整体是不利于低碳经济发展的,尤其是表现在规模效应和结构效应上;而ODI虽然促进了低碳经济发展但并未带来明显逆向技术溢出效应。为此,在"一带一路"政策实施过程中,"一带"地区要积极引导FDI流向低碳企业,同时注意防范FDI对本地企业的挤出效应,"一路"地区则要充分发挥FDI的技术溢出效应;此外,应加大技术寻求型ODI的比例,推进低碳经济目标的实现。

＂Low-carbon economy＂ development model has become the inevitable choice of many countries. Low carbon economy cannot develop without the financial support and the flow of capital will significantly affect the low carbon economy development. Foreign Direct Investment （FDI） and Outward Foreign Direct Investment （ODD promote economic growth and at the same time, they bring the resource consumption and environmental pollution. Therefore, in the context of promoting economic growth and low carbon development, we should pay attention to the environmental impact caused by FDI and ODI. Under the background of ＂the Belt and Road Initiatives＂（B^R）, it has been a common sense that alliance countries should build green silk road and set up low carbon community. So, iCs important for the B＆R strategy to analyze FDI and ODI effects on low carbon economic development in the region in both theory and reality. FDI and ODI will influence the level of carbon emission significantly through scale effect, structure effect and technical effect. Scale effect is the development of economy and the change of the economic scale due to the flow of international capital, which results in the change of carbon emissions. Structure effect is the channel that FDI and ODI can guide the direction of capital to the high and new technology industry, as well as low carbon industry, thus the high carbon industry will die out. This evolution can realize the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and finally achieve the goal of low carbon economy. Technical effect refers to the channel that the international capital flow will bring advanced production technology. Through the technical spillover effect or reverse technology, it can promote the country＇s low carbon economy development. This paper selected panel data of 17 provinces along the B＆R between 2003- 2014 and constructed FDI and ODI carbon emission simultaneous equation model based on B＆R panel date regression of related provinces, according to environmental kuznets curve proposed by Grossman and Krueger in 1992. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows ： FDI as a whole is not favorable for the development of low carbon economy, especially on the scale effect and structure effect. Specifically, the total effect of FDI in the area of ＂the Belt＂ is positive while the three major effects of carbon emissions are all positive, which suggests that FDI in the area of ＂the Belt＂ increases the output, deteriorates the industrial structure and does not bring clean technology. All above add to the carbon emissions. In addition, the total effect of FDI in the area of ＂the Road＂ is negative. The scale effect and structure effect is positive while technical effect is negative, which explains that the technical effect of FDI is greater than the others and promotes low carbon economy consequently. However,although ODI promotes the development of low carbon economy, it fails to bring reverse spillover effect. Specifically, the total effect of ODI in the area of ＂the Belt＂ is positive negative mainly by improving industrial structure in this area. However, the ODI does not bring significant reverse technical effect. Besides, the total effect of ODI in the area of ＂the Road＂ is positive. We can draw the conclusion from the three major effect that ODI will result in a decline of output in this region and unit of industrial output of carbon emissions increasing. But the structure effect in this region is not significant and the reverse technical effect is not shown as well. In general, firstly, FDI in ＂the Belt＂ hinders the development of low carbon economy while ODI promotes the level of carbon emissions down from regional perspective. The FDI and ODI in ＂the Road＂ are just in the opposite. Secondly, the negative impact of scale effect and structure effect brought by FDI cannot be ignored and ODI can be beneficial to the development of low carbon economy. Accordingly, on the one hand, in the process of ＂the Belt and Road Initiatives＂ implementation, the provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt are different from the provinces along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in many aspects, such as economic structure, resources endowment, and science and technology level, etc. Therefore, FDI will produce different effects in different region. We should actively guide the FDI flow to the low carbon enterprise in ＂the Belt＂ region which lead to the development of structure of low carbon by industrial and technology upgrading. At the same time, we should also pay attention to minimizing the squeezing effect of FDI to local enterprises. Furthermore, ＂the Road＂ region should give full use of the technical spillover effect of FDI to improve the efficiency of energy utilization and achieve the sustained economic development of low carbon economy. On the other hand, with the expansion of ODI in China, it does not solve the problem of domestic carbon emissions and hinders the development of low carbon economy instead. Therefore, we should encourage the proportion of ODI in type of technology seeking. We can enhance our technology level through reverse technology effect and promote our industrial structure upgrading and optimization through the industry associations and industry transfer. That is to say, this gives full play to the ODI technical effect and structure effect, which can promote achieving the goal of low carbon economy.