经济新常态下中国增长型经济周期的波动性与持续性研究

Studies on the Volatility and Durations of Growth Cycles in New Normal in China's Economy

改革开放以来,我国经济增长由停滞开始起飞,在经济转轨中走向市场化,并在经济全球化、加速工业化和城市化的新阶段实现了从初期的"高增长、高波动"到"适速增长、低波动"的转变。进入新常态以来,受国际金融危机和国内外经济环境不确定性的影响,我国的经济增长速度放缓,经济周期进入下行阶段。为了判断我国经济在"十三五"期间的基本走势和主体特征,对经济增长的周期波动态势和周期阶段的持续性特征进行定量研究。研究结果表明,在"十三五"期间,我国经济增长将表现出五至八年的中等长度经济周期;虽然在此周期中经济增长率的均值水平出现下移,但是波动率较低,经济周期阶段的持续性增强,周期阶段转移概率较小;经济政策始终处于有效操作区间,新常态的趋势性特征逐步显现和稳固,我国经济发展将再次获得增长动力转换、产业结构升级和整体结构优化的良好契机,能够为建设全面小康社会夯实基础。

Since the reform and opening up,China' s economic growth began to take off from stagnation,and become a market-oriented economic transition stage,and achieve a moderately smooth growth transition from the initial high-growth,high volatility during the new stage of globalization,accelerated industrialization and urbanization.However,at the beginning of '12th Five-Year' stage,China' s economic growth began slow down,because of the financial crisis and the external and internal economic uncertain.At the period of New Normal,we analyzed the volatility and persistence of China' s business cycle from the framework of 'medium-term cycle'.We find that there exists a 5-8 year cycle in China economy which is accompanied by lower average growth and volatility.At the same time,the economic policies are in effective in the New Normal.In our opinion, '13th Five-Year' stage will still being in the 'moderate growth and moderate fluctuations' stage.China economic development has the good chance to do the comprehensive economic restructuring,the adjustment of economic structural,and the complete of urbanization,industrialization.It will laid the solid development foundation and the material base for the comprehensive better-off society.