居民消费率一般演进规律与我国的特殊性研究

Research on the Revolution Pattern of Household Consumption Rate and the Particularity of China

提升居民消费率是构建扩大内需长效机制的关键。基于产业结构变迁模型研究发现,在产业结构升级过程中,随着人均收入的增长,居民消费率呈先降后升的U型演进规律。我国居民消费率虽然遵循这一规律,且在工业化进程中,居民消费率将长期处于下行空间,但还存在居民消费率相对于同一收入水平下的世界平均值显著偏低这一特殊性。其原因主要在于我国城市化率偏低,产业合理化水平有待提高。因此,提升居民消费率,长期主要需依靠持续的产业升级推动经济增长,而中短期可将加速城市化进程、促进各产业均衡发展作为政策重点。

Promoting the household consumption rate is the key to establish a long-term mechanism of expanding domestic demand. Based on an industrial structure change model,it is found that with the increasing of per capita income,the household consumption rate shows the U-shaped revolution pattern in the process of industrial structure upgrading. Chinas household consumption rate is in consistence with this law and will sustain the downtrend at the Chinas stage of industrialization. However,we also find that Chinas household consumption rate is under the world average at the same income level,existing particularity. This is mainly because of low urbanization rate and industrial structure rationalization level of China. As a result,in order to improve the household consumption rate,we should rely on sustained industrial upgrading to drive economic growth in the long run,while in the short run we could accelerate urbanization,break down industry barriers and foster balanced development.