我国城乡收入差距的统计建模——基于各省纵向数据的MERS模型的实证分析

Statistical Modeling of Urban and Rural Income Gap of China——An Empirical Research Based on MERS Model of Longitudinal Data

使用回归样条线混合效应(MERS)模型,基于各省份的纵向数据,对城乡收入差距与经济增长的关系进行统计建模,证实无论是全国还是各省份城乡收入比与对数人均GDP均存在库兹涅茨曲线的倒U关系。对各省份样本的库兹涅茨曲线的拐点处的人均GDP以及到达拐点的时间的分析表明,我国各省在2010年以后均进入了库兹涅茨曲线的下降区域,城乡收入差距有望进一步缩小。

The relationship of urban and rural income gap and economic growth of China and its provinces is modeled through using mixed effects regression splines（MERS） model, based on longitudinal data of China ＇s provinces.It is verified that there exists a converse U curve relation,which Kuznets curve indicates,between urban and rural income ratio and the logarithm of GDP per capita.Then GDP per capita of each province at the inflection point of Kuznets curve,and the year when the sample reached the the inflection point are estimated.After the analysis of the samples,it is revealed that all provinces of China have entered the decreasing part of Kuznets curve, and consequently , urban and rural income gap is expected to be narrowed in the next few years.