石家庄地区气温对慢性阻塞性肺病住院人数的影响

Influence of air temperature on the number of hospital admissions due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease at Shijiazhuang region

利用2013年1月1日至12月31日石家庄地区慢性阻塞性肺病住院病例资料和同期石家庄站地面气象观测资料、大气污染监测数据,采用广义相加模型控制时间趋势和大气污染混杂效应,定量分析气温对慢性阻塞性肺病住院人数的影响。结果表明:24 h变温(BT)、滞后3 d的最低气温(T_(min)3)和滞后5 d的气温日较差(Tc5)3项指标对石家庄地区慢性阻塞性肺病住院人数均有不同程度的影响,当-4.4℃<BT≤-0.7℃、-3.6℃<T_(min)3≤3.2℃和T_(min)3>20.5℃、0.9℃<Tc5≤8.6℃时,BT、T_(min)3和Tc5等3项指标每上升1.0℃,慢性阻塞性肺病发病住院的相对危险度RR分别为1.0207(95%CI:1.0074—1.0342)、1.0118(95%CI:1.0015—1.0222)和1.0069(95%CI:1.0005—1.0133)、1.0125(95%CI:1.0066—1.0185),本文研究结果对石家庄地区慢性阻塞性肺病的气象预报服务具有一定的指导意义。

Based on the medical records of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease （COPD） from January 1 to De- cember 31 of 2013 and the meteorological observation and air pollution data in the same periods,the influence of air temperature on the number of hospital admissions due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease at Shijiazhuang region was analyzed using the generalized additive model to control the confounding effect of time trend and air pollution. The results show that three indexes,i, e. ,the variable temperature in 24 h （BT） ,3 d lagged minimum temperature （ Tmin3 ） and 5 d lagged diurnal temperature range （ Tc5 ） influence the number of the COPD hospital admissions at different extends. When BT is larger than -4.4 ℃ and equal or less than -0. 7 ℃, Train3 is larger than- 3.6 ℃, equal or less than 3.2 ℃ and larger than 20. 5 ℃, and Tc5 is larger than 0. 9 ℃ and equal or less than 8.6 ℃, the relative risk （RR） of the COPD hospital admissions is 1. 0207 （95 % CI （ Confidence Interval） ： 1. 0074-1. 0342 ）, 1.0118 （ 95 % CI： 1.0015-1. 0222 ） and 1. 0069 （ 95 % CI： 1. 0005-1.0133 ）, respectively with every 1.0 ℃ increase in these three temperature indexes. The results provide guidance for the COPD meteorological forecasting services.