金融稳定与货币政策多目标协调性研究——基于2005-2015年月度数据

Research on the Coordination of Financial Stability and Multi-Objective of Monetary Policy——Based on the Data of 2005-2015 Years

金融稳定是货币政策重要目标之一,如何科学测度金融稳定并探寻其与货币政策其他目标是否存在协调和协调共存最优区间有着重要的意义.选取2005.7-2015.6年数据从金融系统平稳运行和金融系统风险承受能力两个方面构建适合我国国情的金融稳定指标评价体系进行测度,揭示我国金融稳定先降后升的历史规律.并以金融稳定指数为门限变量,构建货币政策多目标门限模型,通过门限效应分析发现我国金融稳定与货币政策其他目标存在可协调性,金融稳定指数的最优目标区间为[7.23‰,8.57‰].为完善我国宏观调控政策,可将金融稳定纳入到当前的货币政策调控目标体系中,加强货币政策和宏观审慎政策的联合,避免系统性金融风险积累引发的社会经济异常波动.

Financial stability is an important objective of monetary policy. How to measure the degree of financial stability scientifically, explore its existence of coor- dination with other objectives of monetary policy and the existence of the optimal range which have an important significance. Based on 2005- 2015 economic data, thepaper constructs the index system for the capacity of the financial system and risks. By the measures of our financial financial stability of our country both from the smooth operation of the financial system stability of our financial stability reveals the historical law of our country financial system stability is down then up. The paper also construct the threshold model of multi-objective of monetary policy which makes financial stability index as its variable threshold. By threshold effect analysis of finan- cial stability and the other objectives of monetary policy, we found the coordination is exist and the optimal interval of financial stability index is [7.23‰, 8.57‰]. In order to improve China＇s macro - control policy, financial stability may be incorporated into the current objectives of monetary policy system. Monetary authorities should strengthen joint monetary policy and macro-prudential policies to avoid the abnormal fluctuations of social and economic caused by systemic financial risks.