2016年朝鲜半岛形势回顾与展望

A Retrospect of the Korean Peninsula Situation in 2016 and a Prospect for 2017

2016年,朝鲜进行了两次(第四、五次)核试验,核开发的步伐加快,拥核的意志更加坚定,拥核的路线趋于固化。美国借口朝鲜核试,加紧推进其东北亚战略。一时间,美国的"亚太再平衡"战略、朝鲜的拥核自保战略、韩国的"吞并统一"战略在朝鲜半岛相互碰撞,大国的战略博弈日趋加剧。朝核危机、"萨德"入韩和韩国的政治危机在朝鲜半岛相互叠加,对地区形势造成强烈的冲击。2017年,朝鲜半岛形势依然严峻。美国新任总统特朗普的对朝鲜半岛政策将有新的调整,半岛的战略博弈仍将以一定的强度继续下去。三大危机难以化解,地区安全形势仍将动荡不稳,半岛无核化进程能否出现转机尚难以预料。

1. A Retrospect of the Korean Peninsula Situation in 2016 In 2016, the DPRK conducted two nuclear tests （the fourth and fifth）, which has indicated that its nuclear development program is accelerating, its determination to have nuclear weapons is more strengthened and its line to obtain nuclear weapons is consolidated.