从历史逻辑解析朝鲜半岛局势

An Analysis of the Korean Peninsula Situation from the Historical Logic

朝鲜半岛问题历来错综复杂,众说纷纭,常常令人感到难以理解。但如果从历史演进的逻辑进行分析,我们可以看到较为清晰的脉络:朝鲜半岛问题的历史逻辑起点始于日本吞并朝鲜;半岛由于内部体系的破碎,缺少领导民族的核心力量,其复国过程严重依赖外部力量。这种依附性导致战后半岛受大国竞争和冷战影响而陷入分裂。且由于这种分裂既无外部确认保障,也无内部认可,最终使半岛陷入战争。冷战结束后,东亚出现和平局势,半岛南北开始和解,但美国以确保霸权地位为核心的战略与历史潮流、半岛和平发展趋势发生了逻辑对撞。朝核问题正是在这种和平趋势与霸权逻辑的对撞中起起起伏伏,目前终于接近逻辑发展的顶点,走到变局的边缘。我们需要在关注特朗普是否会带来大时代逻辑变化的同时,重新认识朝鲜半岛内在的逻辑走向。

The Korean Peninsula issue has been complicated, hotly debated and often hard to understand. But from the historical logic development perspective, we can clearly see the context. The historical origin of the issue started from Japan's annexation of Korea and the national recovering has depended heavily on the outside forces, as the internal system in the peninsula broke down and there lacked a core to lead the nation. This dependency has resulted in the division of the Korean Peninsula in the post Second World War era, because of the competition among the major powers and the influence of the Cold War. As such a division was not guaranteed by external recognition, nor was it recognized within the peninsula, a war broke out in the end. With the Cold War ending, a peaceful situation appeared in Northeast Asia, which made it possible for the North and South Koreas to ease their tensions, but the US strategy with maintaining its hegemony at the core clashed with the logics of historical trend and peaceful development of the Korean Peninsula. The Korean nuclear issue has experienced ups and downs in such a clash between its peaceful development and the US hegemonic logic, which is reaching the peak of the logic development and bordering on a variation. We need to pay close attention to if Trump could bring about logic changes of this big era, while re-understanding the internal logic trend of the Korean Peninsula.