苹果异胫小卷蛾在中国的适生性分析

The potential geographical distribution of the Thaumatotibia leucotreta in China

苹果异胫小卷蛾是世界范围内重要的检疫性有害生物,目前我国没有发生,但近几年我国口岸已多次截获。本研究利用CLIMEX 1.0适生性分析软件与Arc GIS 10.2地理信息系统软件对苹果异胫小卷蛾在我国目前的潜在地理分布进行预测。研究表明,苹果异胫小卷蛾可能在我国南部地区适生,总的适生面积约为187万km2,占国土面积的19%。高度适生区主要为云南大部分地区、广东、广西、福建、浙江南部等地区,以及这些省份以南的所有地区;中度适生区分布范围较小,低度适生区面积与高度适生区分布范围面积相差不大。鉴于苹果异胫小卷蛾在我国的适生性分析结果,针对其传入和定殖的能力,建议采取相应的有效防控策略,加强苹果异胫小卷蛾检疫力度,严防该有害生物的入侵和传播。

Thaumatotibia leucotreta is an important quarantine pest worldwide. Although it does not in- vade in China, it has been intercepted several times by the port of China in recent years. The current po- tential geographic distribution of T. leucotreta was studied in this paper by using CLIMEX 1.0 and Ar- cGIS 10.2. The results shows that under the current climate conditions,the geographical distribution of T. leucotreta was mainly concentrated in the south of China. The suitable area in China is about 187 mil- lion square kilometers,accounting for 19% of the land area of China.The result presented the high level of potential distribution were at most part of Yunnan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Fujian,southern Zhejiang,as well as all areas of these provinces to the south.Moderate suitable area distribution is small,low grade suitable area as the same as the high level of potential distribution. According to the pest＇s characteristics of introduction and colonization,the quarantine and monitoring measures should be enhanced more in China,in order to prevent the invasion and spread of T. leucotreta.