基于Logistic回归的进境木薯干携带活虫疫情风险分析

Risk analysis of the live insect in imported tapioca chips based on Logistic regression model

从口岸检疫角度探讨进境木薯干携带活虫疫情的风险因素。通过对2011~2015年进境木薯干昆虫疫情数据进行描述性统计分析,进而对检疫重要性、来源国家、时间等因素进行多因素Logistic回归分析。结果表明进境木薯干截获昆虫的总体平均活虫率为27.81%,检疫性昆虫活虫风险是非检疫性昆虫的1.437倍,越南活虫疫情风险为总体平均水平的2.737倍,7~10月份活虫疫情风险为总体的1.6~2倍。由此可以得出结论:不同检疫重要性、来源国家、时间的活虫率存在显著性差异,对高风险来源国家、季节应加强检疫措施。

To study the risk factor which is respect to the live insect in the imported tapioca chips from port plant quarantine point of view. The insect quarantine data was processed with descriptive statistics method,then,the risk factors,such as the quarantine significance,original country and the imported time were entered in binary Logistic regression model. The results showed that the proportion of the live in- sect is 27.81%. The live insect rate of the quarantined insect is 1.437 times as much as non-quarantined insect. The live insect rate of the tapioca chips which were from Vietnam and imported during July to October is 2.737 times and 1.6-2.0 times as much as overall average level. We can draw a conclusion that there are significant differences of live insect rate between quarantined insect or not, original country and imported time,and strict quarantine measure should be taken in connection with the high risk origi- nal countries and seasons.