中国居民天然气消费重心迁移路径及增长动因分解

Gravity Center Evolution Paths and Growth Factor Decomposition of Residential Natural Gas Consumption in China

在研究2000—2014年中国居民天然气消费重心迁移路径及其变化特征的基础上,首先运用夏普利值分解八大经济区域对重心迁移的贡献率,然后采用LMDI分解方法,将天然气消费增量分解为基础设施效应、服务效率效应、需求效应,探讨各区域对重心迁移贡献大小的原因与规律。结果显示:2000—2014年居民天然气消费重心经历了向西北、东南、东北方向迁移的三个阶段;2000—2003年西北、西南和东北地区,2003—2008年东部沿海、南部沿海地区,2008—2014年北部沿海、东部沿海和长江中游地区是居民消费重心迁移的主要推力;2000—2014年,基础设施效应一直是促进中国及各区域居民天然气增长的主要动因,而未来效率效应和需求效应将会逐步成为大部分区域的主要驱动因素。

Based on the research and analysis about the characteristics of the evolution path of China＇s residential natural gas consumption during 2000-2014, we calculated the contribution rate of China＇s eight regions to the evolution of the gravity center with Shapley value. Then,using the method of LMDI decomposition, the growth of China＇s residential natural gas consumption was decomposed into three influencing factors, which were infrastructure, service efficiency and demand, and the reasons and rules of regional contribution to the gravity center evolution were discussed. The results show that： the migration of the gravity center has undergone three stages： to northwest, to southeast and to northeast during 2000-2014. The main forces of gravity center migration of residential natural gas consumption were the northwest, the southwest and the northeast during 2000-2003, the east coast and the southern coast during 2003-2008, the east coast, the northern coast and the middle reach of Yangtze River during 2008-2014. During 2000-2014, infrastructure factor was always the main driving force of the growth of residential natural gas consumption in China and in each region, while service efficiency and demand factor will gradually become the main driving forces in most regions in the future.