基于熵信息扩散理论的中国农业水旱灾害风险评估

Agricultural Flood and Drought Risk Assessment in China Based on Entropy Information Diffusion Theory

农业水旱灾害是制约中国农业生产的重要因素。针对信息扩散理论模型存在的不足,论文构建了评估中国农业水旱灾害风险的熵信息扩散理论模型,依据1985—2013年数据资料,运用熵信息扩散理论模型对中国大陆30个省、市、自治区(重庆包含在四川中计算)的农业水旱灾害进行了风险评估,根据农业水旱灾害风险评估结果对中国农业水旱灾害风险进行了综合对比分析。评估和分析结果表明:中国面临着较大的农业水旱灾害风险压力;中国农业旱灾风险明显大于农业水灾风险;农业水旱灾害空间风险特征明显;农业水灾高中风险区域主要集中在长江中下游地区和东北地区,农业旱灾高风险区域主要集中在中国北部地区和东北地区,总体上看,中国农业水旱灾害的空间分布格局是南方地区易出现水灾,而北部地区易出现旱灾,东北地区面临水旱灾害重叠的双重压力。

Agricultural flood and drought are the major factors that constrain the agricultural production in China. In view of the deficiency of information diffusion theory model, an entropy information diffusion theory model for agricultural flood and drought risk assessment was built in this paper, and a case was taken which verified that the entropy information diffusion theory model is superior to the information diffusion theory model in the aspect of estimation results. Then, the entropy information diffusion theory model is employed to assess the risk of agricultural flood and drought in the 30 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions of the mainland of China（Chongqing city is contained in Sichuan Province） based on the data gathered during the period of 1985-2013, and a comprehensive comparative analysis is conducted on the agricultural flood and drought risks in China based on the assessment result.According to the evaluation and the analysis, China is faced with serious agricultural flood and drought risk; the agricultural drought risk is obviously higher than the agricultural flood risk in China; agricultural flood and drought risks exhibit a remarkable spatial pattern; the high and medium risk area of agricultural flood are mainly found in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Northeast China, while the high risk area of agricultural drought disaster are mainly observed in the northern part of China and Northeast China. According to the spatial distribution pattern of agricultural floods and droughts in China, the southern part of China is susceptible to flood, the northern part of China is susceptible to drought, and Northeast China is faced with the overlapped effect of flood and drought.