1996-2014年南宁市HIV感染时空聚集性研究

Spatiotemporal cluster of HIV Infection in Nanning,1996-2014

目的探测1996-2014年南宁市乡镇/街道办事处尺度上,艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者的时空聚集性,为南宁市HIV的防控提供科学参考。方法从乡镇/街道办事处尺度上,对1996-2014年南宁市HIV新发报告率用泊松模型的时空扫描统计量进行小尺度时空聚集性探测,并用地理信息系统实现探测结果的可视化。结果 1996-2014年,南宁市HIV感染共存在5个有统计学意义的高发性时空聚集区。其中一级聚集区为宾阳县宾州镇,始于1999年,止于2002年[对数似然比(LLR)=119.02,相对危险度(RR)=7.08,P<0.001];次级聚集区分别包括:1)以良庆区那马镇为中心,共28个乡镇/街道,聚集于2003-2008年的次级聚集区Ⅰ(LLR=63.04,RR=1.35,P<0.001);2)以横县甘棠镇为中心,共14个乡镇,聚集于2013-2014年的次级聚集区Ⅱ(LLR=51.65,RR=1.71,P<0.001);3)以马山县周鹿镇为中心,共47个乡镇,聚集于2010-2014年的次级聚集区Ⅲ(LLR=43.82,RR=1.21,P<0.001);4)以横县横州镇为中心,共2个乡镇,聚集于2000-2007年的次级聚集区Ⅳ(LLR=35.18,RR=1.75,P<0.001)。结论时空扫描统计量可以较好地揭示南宁HIV感染的时空聚集性,相关部门应该加强对HIV时空高发聚集区的防控工作。

Objective To detect the spatiotemporal cluster of HIV infection in Nanning during 1996 to 2014 at the township level. Methods Spatiotemporal scan statistics base on Poisson model was used to detect the spatiotemporal clusters of HIV infection. Results Five spatiotemporal clusters were detected by spatiotemporal scan statistics. Among the clusters, The first-level cluster happened in Binzhou town from 1999 to 2002 （LLR=119.02, RR =7.08,P〈0. 001）. The main second-level cluster happened in Nama town as a center, including 28 towns from 2003 to 2008 （LLR=63.04, RR=1. 35, P〈0. 001）. The other cluster areas centered on Gantang town covering 14 towns from 2013 to 2014 （LLR= 51.65, RR= 1.71, P〈0. 001）, Zhoulu town covering 47 towns from 2010 to 2014 （LLR=43.82, RR=1. 21, P（0. 001）, Hengzhou and Nayang towns from 2000 to 2007 （LLR=35.18, RR = 1.75, P〈0. 001）. Conclusion Spatiotemporal scan statistics can be applied to reveal the spatiotemporal clusters of HIV infection in Nanning city so that the health departments should strengthen HIV prevention and control in the areas with spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic.