上海近海海上最大风速的估算及数值模拟

ESTIMATION AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IN SHANGHAI OFFSHORE

基于上海近海测风塔测风数据和上海气象站历史风速资料,利用数理统计分析方法和TAPM模式模拟技术开展上海近海不同重现期最大风速的估算、数值模拟与测风塔观测的最大风速的对比验证以及上海近海最大风速的高度变化和空间分布特征研究。结果表明,上海近海10 m高度50 a和100 a一遇的最大风速分别为35.1和37.7 m/s,TAPM模式能较好地模拟出台风大风影响时近海风速的变化特征,在近海10~100 m层间风切变指数取0.08是适宜的,上海最大风速基本呈从东到西递减的分布,在沿海和长江口的海(江)岸带风速变化梯度最大。

Based on the wind speed data from offshore anemometer tower and meteorological stations in Shanghai, the estimation, numerical simulation of maximum wind speed in Shanghai offshore for different recurrence intervals were carried out, and was compared and validated with observed data from anemometer tower, as well as the change of maximum wind speed in Shanghai offshore with the heights and its spatial distribution characteristics was analyzed using the mathematical statistics analysis method and TAPM model simulation technology. The results indicate that the maximum wind speeds with recurrence intervals of 50 and 100 years are 35.1 and 37.7 m/s, respectively at the height of 10 m in Shanghai offshore. TAPM model can well simulate the variation characteristics of offshore wind speed under the influence of typhoon. It is appropriate for the wind shear exponent to take the value of 0.08 in the height from 10 to 100 m in Shanghai offshore. The maximum wind speed in Shanghai basically shows the descending distribution from east to west parts, and in the coastal areas and the seashores or river banks of the Yangtze River estuary, wind speed changes with the greatest gradient.