湖南省2000—2014年碳排放效应及时空格局

Carbon emissions and their spatial-temporal patterns in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2014

利用湖南省2000—2014年的土地利用变更、能源消费量以及国民经济发展和人口增长数据,采用基于碳排放系数的碳排放模型和脱钩模型,分析湖南省碳排放效应、时空格局特征以及碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩弹性关系。结果表明:(1)2000—2014年湖南省碳排放总量逐年递增,由2000年的2040.91×10~4t增长到2014年的10902.56×10~4t,年均增加590.78×10~4t。(2)2014年湖南全省单位面积碳排放强度和单位面积建设用地碳排放强度达5.15和62.55 t·hm^(-2),年均增长率分别为13.15%和8.98%。(3)2014年湖南省14个地州市的碳排放总量、建设用地碳排放量、单位面积碳排放强度、单位面积建设用地碳排放强度以及单位产值碳排放强度和人均GDP均存在显著的空间差异,大致呈中东部高、西部低的空间分布格局。(4)湖南省碳排放强度与人均GDP呈倒U型曲线关系,曲线的拐点在1.00~1.10万元獉人^(-1)附近。(5)2000—2014年湖南省碳排放量、能源消费量和经济增长之间的弹性特征主要呈弱脱钩、强脱钩、扩张性负脱钩等3种状态,总体上以弱脱钩为主。

Based on the data of land use, energy consumption and the growth of economy and population in Hunan Province during 2000-2014, a carbon emission model based on carbon emission coefficient and decoupling analysis were used to analyze carbon emissions and their spatial-temporal patterns and the decoupling relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. The following findings were obtained： （1） The net carbon emission increased rapidly from 2040.91×104 t in 2000 to 10902.56×104 t in 2014, with an average annual increase of 590.78×104 t. （2） The carbon emission per unit area of land and carbon emission per unit area of construction land were 5.15 and 62.55 t·hm-2, with an average annual growth rate of 13.15% and 8.98%, respectively. （3） The net carbon emissions of all lands, carbon emission of construction land, carbon emission per unit area of land, carbon emission per unit area of construction land and carbon emission of GDP per capita had significant spatial differences among 14 cities in 2014, with a decreasing trend from central and east to west part. （4） There existed a reversed U-shaped curve between carbon emission intensity and GDP per capita, with an inflexion point of the curve at roughly 10000-11000 yuan per capita. （5） The elastic characteristics of carbon emissions, energy consumptions and economic growth mainly showed weak decoupling, strong decoupling, and expanded negative decoupling states in Hunan Province during 2000-2014. In general, the elastic characteristics were weak decoupling.