中国企业对外直接投资能缓解产能过剩吗——基于中国工业企业数据库的实证研究

Does Chinese Firm Outward FDI Relieve Overcapacity——An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database

鼓励企业对外直接投资(OFDI)的"走出去"战略是政府现阶段化解产能过剩的重要手段。文章利用倾向得分匹配法为2005-2009年中国对外直接投资的工业企业找到可供比较的对照组,在此基础上运用倍差法考察对外直接投资能否缓解企业的产能过剩。研究发现,企业开展对外直接投资活动后产能过剩指数出现显著下降,并且过剩行业的企业开展对外直接投资活动对产能过剩的缓解作用更为突出,但产能过剩越严重的企业越缺乏意愿对外直接投资。进一步检验OFDI的规模效应和滞后效应后发现,增加OFDI国家的数目显著地降低了企业的产能过剩指数,OFDI对企业的产能过剩指数有长期影响。为了缓解当前的产能过剩,政府应该继续坚持"走出去"战略,尤其要鼓励过剩行业大力发展对外直接投资。

The ＂Outward Foreign Direct Investment＂ is an important strategy for government to solve the overcapacity crisis.Based on PSM-DID method,this paper uses firm-level data to examine the relationship between OFDI of Chinese firm and the overcapacity index.The results show that：Firstly,the overcapacity index of Chinese OFDI enterprises has decreased by 2.82%.Secondly,OFDI of enterprises in the overcapacity industries has a greater positive impact on the overcapacity index,meanwhile,enterprises with higher overcapacity index have less tendency to implement OFDI activities.We then examine scale effect and hysteresis effect of OFDI and find that the increasing number of OFDI countries can significantly reduce the overcapacity index,and OFDI has a long-term effect on overcapacity index.In order to relieve the overcapacity,the government should continue the ＂going out＂ strategy,in particular,encourage enterprises in overcapacity industry to develop foreign direct investment.