进口贸易技术溢出、人力资本与我国技术创新——基于VAR模型的动态分析

The Releation Between Technology Spillovers of Goods Imports,Human Capital and Technology Innovation:Dynamic Analysis Based on VAR Model

进口贸易是技术溢出的重要渠道。我国作为货物贸易第一大国,如何利用进口贸易所产生的技术溢出来加快自身的技术创新步伐意义重大。基于1995-2015年我国进口贸易与技术创新的时间序列数据建立VAR模型进行实证分析,结论显示:进口贸易技术溢出对技术创新有着显著的正向激励,且具有较长的持续性;人力资本对技术溢出的吸收能力对技术创新的影响十分微弱,且明显受时间滞后因素制约。

We conducts empirical analysis through VAR model baesd on time series data of our import trade and technology inno-vation, ranging from 1995 to 2015. As the conclusion shows, technology spillovers of goods imports influence technology innovation most and the impact is far-reaching.The influence exerted by the index of absorption capacity of human capital for technology spillovers is tiny, and it suffers from time delay obviously.