安徽省对外贸易与港口物流互动效应研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Research on the Interaction between Foreign Trade and Port Logistics in Anhui Province:An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

选取1998-2015年安徽省进出口贸易额及港口货物吞吐量数据,以VAR模型、脉冲响应和方差分解等研究方法为手段,对进出口贸易和港口物流间互动效应进行分析。结果表明:安徽省进出口贸易与港口物流之间存在相互促进,彼此推动的关系,且短期效果比较明显,其进出口贸易对港口物流的推动作用具有即时性,同时港口物流对进出口贸易的依赖更大。总之安徽省对外贸易与港口物流间存在互动效应,两者相互促进,共同发展。安徽要增加高新技术、高附加值产品出口,同时整合沿江港口资源,推动保税物流园区与沿江港口联动建设,提高通关效率。

In this paper, the import and export trade volume and port cargo throughput data of Anhui Province from 1998 to 2015 are analyzed, and the interaction effects between import and export trade and port logistics are analyzed by means of VAR model, im-pulse response and variance decomposition method. The results show that： Anhui import and export trade and port logistics between the promotion of each other, to promote the relationship between each other, and short-term effect is more obvious, the import and export trade on port logistics to promote the role of real-time, while port logistics depend on import and export trade greatly. In short, there is an interactive effect between Anhui Province＇s foreign trade and port logistics, and the two promote each other and develop together. Anhui should increase the high-tech, high value-added products exports, while accelerating the construction of riverside port, to promote bonded logistics park and along the river port linkage construction, and improvely customs clearance efficiency.